Thursday, October 8, 2009

Climate Progress

Climate Progress



Breaking: Carol Browner says clean energy bill without carbon cap would be a "big mistake"; Nobelist Chu agrees, warning we otherwise face catastrophe, with St. Louis above 90°F for 1/3 the year

Posted: 07 Oct 2009 08:12 AM PDT

Carol Browner and Dr Steven Chu … the team grows.

At today's Clean Energy Economy Forum, Carol Browner, Director of White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy, said that it would be a "big mistake" if Congress passed a clean energy bill without a cap on emissions.

Browner made clear that the country needs a comprehensive bill that creates a carbon market to incentivize clean energy over the long-term.  This is the first public statement I've heard from the White House pushing back on the statements by some Senators (not Majority Leader Reid) that have suggested they would prefer to do an energy-only bill.

Energy Secretary Steven Chu was even more blunt.

Chu said a shrinking cap and rising carbon price was "very, very important."  He said it is the part of the bill "that really means something," and "the rest is just carrots."  Chu is a big supporter of carrots but was clear that the long-term signal and steady emissions reductions were critical to avoid catastrophe.

He specifically refenced the recent definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts that warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year (which that isn't the worst case, it's business as usual).

Chu pointed out that on our current emissions path, St. Louis, Missouri would spend one third the year.

Finally, Commerce Secretary Locke said it is "absolutely important we pass this" bill, that it is incredibly important for economic competitiveness, pointing out that China spends $12 million an hour on clean energy!

The Chamber claims its "Board of Directors is the principal governing and policymaking body." Nike says that's false, and American Enterprise Institute agrees, calling the Chamber board "mostly ceremonial."

Posted: 07 Oct 2009 07:35 AM PDT

Memo to media:  The ever-shrinking Chamber of Commerce is not "the voice of business."  Indeed, we now know that besides being anti-scientific, it is anti-democratic, not even bothering to consult with its own Board of Directors on its own climate policy — in direct contradiction to its stated policy.

Greenwire (subs. req'd) reports the amazing news:

U.S. Chamber of Commerce staff decides the trade group's climate and energy policy positions without approval from the board of directors, Nike Inc. charged as it formulated a plan to call for greater chamber openness.

Nike, which last week left the chamber's board of directors but decided to remain a chamber member, described a lack of transparency at the group that conflicts with how the chamber describes its operations. Beaverton, Ore.-based Nike said it is determined to work for changes in the group.

"We just weren't clear in how decisions on climate and energy were being made," said Brad Figel, Nike's director of government relations. "They're not being made at the board-of-director level, because we're a member of the board of directors.. We were not consulted. We're convinced that's not really where the action on climate change is being made."

As previously documented, the vast majority of the major businesses on the Chamber's board who have a publicly stated their position on climate legislation support strong action (see here).

Kenneth Green, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, defended the Chamber's anti-democratic denialism:

"Generally speaking," Green said, "what you have is a charismatic leader who makes the policy decisions, probably based on the policy recommendations of staff … and a board that is mostly ceremonial."

Well, "charismatic" isn't the first word that comes to mind.  Compromised, maybe (see "Are Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue's Ties to Union Pacific Railroading the Companies that Support Climate Policy?")

But what is truly stunning about Nike's charge and Green's defense is that it is in direct contradiction to the Chamber's stated policy on its website about its Board (here):

The Board of Directors is the principal governing and policymaking body of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The board's membership is as diverse as the nation's business community itself, with more than 100 corporate and small business leaders serving from all sectors and sizes of business, and from all regions of the country.

Directors determine the U.S. Chamber's policy positions on business issues and advise the U.S. Chamber on appropriate strategies to pursue. Through their participation in meetings and activities held across the nation, Directors help implement and promote U.S. Chamber policies and objectives.

But Green, a leading right-wing denier, has blurted out what is obviously common knowledge among the conservative establishment — the Board is purely a fig leaf to cover up its own denialism, which William Kovacs, the chamber's senior vice president for environment, technology and regulatory affairs himself blurted out in August with his Luddite call for "the Scopes monkey trial of the 21st century" on global warming (see also Chamber falsely claims "We've never questioned the science behind global warming").

The Chamber's entire website is filled with claims that need rewriting:

The integrity of the U.S. Chamber's policy process must be preserved. This responsibility is shared by staff, committee chairs, and each committee member.
Everyone involved in the process must help develop positions that benefit the entire business community, rather than any given narrow interest. The Chamber makes every effort to accommodate all members who wish to be heard. The process must be open and above board.
Maintaining the integrity of the process is essential for both moral and practical reasons. Very few members resign from the U.S. Chamber because of policy disagreements. This record can be maintained if members know that their views receive a fair hearing and that the Chamber takes positions through a democratic process.

Not.  NRDC's Pete Altman has this ist:

Quit US Chamber: Exelon, PNM Resources, PG&E, Apple.

Quit US Chamber Board: Nike.

Says Chamber doesn't represent their views on climate: Johnson&Johnson, General Electric, San Jose Chamber of Commerce.

American companies tell Senate "We Can Lead" on clean energy; Chu, Locke, Browner headline clean economy forum with business leaders this a.m.

Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:24 AM PDT

The Clean Energy Economy Forum will be webcast live at www.whitehouse.gov/live starting this morning (Wednesday) around 9:15 am (I think).  Details at the end.  What follows is a Wonk Room repost.

We Can Lead

Hundreds of business executives are descending on Washington this week in support of a clean energy economy. Calling for investment in American jobs instead of global warming pollution, the CEOs participating in the Business Advocacy Day for Jobs & Competitiveness — an effort organized by the new We Can Lead coalition — will tell the Senate to take action with strong climate legislation like the Clean Energy Jobs Act introduced last week by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA). Several of these companies have written a public letter to Congress and the administration calling for "comprehensive legislation to cut carbon pollution":

We need you to swiftly enact comprehensive legislation to cut carbon pollution and create an economy-wide cap and trade program. We support this legislation because certainty and rules of the road enable us to plan, build, innovate and expand our businesses. Putting a price on carbon will drive investment into cost-saving, energy-saving technologies, and will create the next wave of jobs in the new energy economy.

Carol Browner, the director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy and EPA administrator Lisa Jackson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are confirmed speakers before the We Can Lead companies, who will be lobbying Congress on Wednesday, October 7 on behalf of strong climate legislation. Many of the participants in the lobby day have endorsed the House legislation, the American Clean Energy and Security Act, and others have called for even stronger action. In addition, the CEOs are "scheduled to eat dinner with Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on Tuesday, and to hold a White House meeting with Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke on Wednesday morning."

Politico reports that "28 companies and labor and green groups — including United Technologies, Johnson & Johnson, GE, Weyerhauser, the Nature Conservancy and the Environmental Defense Action Fund — are launching" a million-dollar ad campaign "in support of comprehensive clean energy and climate change legislation."

We Can Lead is a collaboration between the Clean Economy Network, Ceres, and other business groups including:

Arkansas Business Leaders for Clean Energy Economy
Apollo Alliance
Business Council for Sustainable Energy
Business Forward
Environmental Entrepeneurs
– EDF – Less Carbon More Jobs
– Indiana Businesses for Clean Energy Economy
National Venture Capital Association
– Ohio Business Council for a Clean Economy
– Pennsylvania Business Leaders for a Clean Economy
Renewable Energy Business Network
TechNet
US Climate Action Network

JR:  Details on the event this a.m.. in the White House follow.

On Wednesday, October 7, Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke will be joined by Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Carol Browner and other top Administration officials in hosting a Clean Energy Economy Forum at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building with business leaders from around the country.  The Administration officials will reiterate the need for a comprehensive energy plan that puts America back in control of its energy future and breaks a dependence on oil that threatens our economy, our environment, and our national security.  They will also have the opportunity to answer questions from and get the perspective of business leaders who have first-hand experience creating jobs while contributing to American energy independence.

Coverage details are below.  The event will also be webcast live at www.whitehouse.gov/live.

WHO: U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke

Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Carol Browner

Administration Officials

Clean Energy Business Leaders

WHAT: Clean Energy Economy Forum

WHEN: Wednesday, October 7

(Pre-Set: 8:30 am, Final Gather: 9:15 am.)

WHERE: Eisenhower Executive Office Building

Breaking: Mike Castle (R-DE) to run for Biden's seat. Since he voted for Waxman-Markey, will RNC Chair Steele denounce him, too — or will he run away from his vote?

Posted: 06 Oct 2009 03:04 PM PDT

Republican Rep. Michael Castle announced at a press conference today in Wilmington, Del., that he will seek the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Vice President Biden last year — instantly boosting the GOP's chances of capturing a Democratic seat.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which handicaps congressional races, called Castle's candidacy a "major recruiting victory" for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Cook moved the race from the "solid Democratic" column to the "toss up" column.

This breaking news from USA Today raises two interesting questions:  First, will RNC Chair Michael Steele denounce him, too?  Second, will Castle continue to advocate for clean energy jobs and climate legislation, or will he try to walk away from his vote like Mark Kirk has in Illinois?

After all, the climate vote is increasingly becoming a litmus test for conservatives (see "Honey, I shrunk the GOP, Part 3: RNC Chair Steele withdraws support for Rep. Kirk over his vote on climate and clean energy bill").

Some hypocrisy on the issue is already clear:

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, chairman of the NRSC … promised that the GOP Senate campaign committee "will ensure that Mike Castle has all the necessary resources to win."

Huh.  It's apparently an unpardonable sin to support climate and clean energy action in a competitive primary, but not in an uncompetitive one.

Still, let's not forget top conservative blogger Michele Malkin, who put this poster on her website after the House vote:

Such is life in a party whose own intellectuals argue "maybe just brain dead."

Dr. Stephen Leeb is easily duped by deniers, so why would anyone rely on his "The Complete Investor newsletter"?

Posted: 06 Oct 2009 01:42 PM PDT

Dr. Stephen Leeb pictureSomeone just e-mailed me the latest example of a seemingly intelligent (albeit conservative) person who has joined the ranks of those successfully duped and confused by the deniers and the status quo media.  Our latest victim's impressive bio:

Dr. Stephen Leeb is the editor of The Complete Investor newsletter. The Complete Investor newsletter has earned awards for Editorial Excellence for 2004 and 2005 by the Newsletter & Electronic Publishers Association [sic -- Leeb hasn't quite figured out the internets, either].  Dr. Leeb is the author of six books on investments and financial trends. His newest book is Game Over: How to Prosper In A Shattered Economy.

He even seems to know something about energy, "His best-selling book The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself – and Profit – from the Coming Energy Crisis accurately predicted the surge in oil prices."  Who didn't, though (other than Michael Lynch, who predicted back in 1996 "real oil prices FLAT for the next two decades)?

But based on the following nonsense he recently wrote and circulated, investors may ask themselves whether he bothers to do the most basic kind of research needed to justify following his advice:

COLD WINTERS FOR THE DOLLAR SPELL GOOD TIMES FOR ENERGY

… A declining dollar will also be positive for oil. But there is something else in the wings that could dramatically accelerate an already sure uptrend in energy prices. We are talking about global warming or the lack thereof.

Global warming has become a well entrenched ideology among scientists. Increasingly, however, the consensus view states that the next 10 to 20 years could actually be a cooler period within a long-term warming trend. We could see colder winters and lower average worldwide temperatures during this time. But according to the scientific community, a generation of colder temperatures is not reason to turn up the thermostats.

Sad, really..  In fact, the "consensus view," a term I don't much like — let's say, rather, "the scientific understanding as reflected in the peer-reviewed literature" — is that the next 10 to 20 years will be the hottest on record collectively (see "Exclusive interview with Dr. Mojib Latif, the man who confused the NY Times and New Scientist, the man who moved George Will and math-challenged Morano to extreme disinformation").

There is no certainly no imaginary consensus predicting "colder winters and lower average worldwide temperatures" over the next one to two decades.

We have always had trouble with zealots whether they be Scientologists or ivory tower ideologues. And global warming is no exception. A few experiences and recent articles make me especially skeptical.

Yes, the entire scientific community, including hundreds of climate scientists, all of the major scientific publications, all of the world's national academies of sciences, and the major scientific associations, are all the equivalent Scientologists or idealogues who never even bother to go outside and study, say, virtually all of the world's glaciers, which are melting far faster than predicted, Dr. Stephen Leeb.

In the summer of 2008 I attended a conference hosted by Accenture in Rio. Sitting next to me for a good part of this event was the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.. This man was a Naval Admiral and a Harvard Ph.D. in applied math. He struck me as a soft-spoken, level-headed, plain-speaking man – certainly not someone inclined towards hyperbole. In addition, as his assistant informed me, he was very thick-skinned.

Turns out he had testified before a Congressional committee on the subject of global warming. His frank answer to the Chairman was that there was not enough evidence to conclude global warming is taking place. The Admiral took a lot of verbal disrespect for expressing such an unpopular view, but his expertise in weather patterns cannot be denied. Nor could the lack of expertise by the Senator who lambasted him.

In light of the data suggesting we may experience a cooler period, I find myself more respectful of the Admiral's view.

This would be Admiral Lautenbacher, a Bush administration stooge appointee, with no climate science credentials, who muzzled actual US climate scientists from speaking out, a climate denier of whom Sen. McCain said in 2005 (back when he was still a maverick),

"You know, you are really one of the more astonishing witnesses in the 19 years I've been a member of this commitee Admiral.  Because clearly you are in violation of the law….  And I again want to express my deep disappointment at your complete lack of concern about future generations of Americans that are affected by climate change which overwhelming scientific evidence…  Let me just, because I'm sure you probably didn't  read it….. The National Academy of Sciences, along with National Academies of 10 other nations issued a joint statement on the global response to climate chage: The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions. And all we are asking from you is a report, and we can't even get that."

But I digress.

Leeb continues confusingly:

I was also struck by a recent article in the August 2009 issue of Science in which scientists found it nearly impossible to incorporate the effect of the sun into climate models. Variability and system feedbacks seem to have a bigger influence on temperatures than the sun's radiation, even though we clearly get most of our heat from the sun.

Well, being unable to determine the sun's role in a climate model is a bit like excluding the role of rainfall from agriculture.

Update:  He apparently means, "Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing" (subs. req'd), an explanatory study that has little bearing on climate change, as its final sentence makes clear:  "This response also cannot be used to explain recent global warming because the 11-year solar cycle has not shown a measurable trend over the past 30 years."

Our point is that we cannot assume the global warming theory is complete and proven. All we know is that we are likely to experience some colder winters in the years ahead, and they will in turn affect the demand for energy.

Colder weather will certainly up the demand for natural gas, oil, and coal, which will in turn drive up the prices of these commodities.

Energy prices are correcting at the moment, as they usually do between the driving season and the heating season. However, if we have a cold winter, we can expect gas and oil prices will be bid up substantially within the next 2-3 months. If people start to realize that cooler winters are a long-term scenario, energy prices may receive a long-term bid as well.

Note how Leeb leaped from what he thinks (incorrectly) the consensus says "could" happen, to knowing that the likely net impact of future climate change will be colder weather that drives up the demand for fossil fuels.

For the record, something Leeb apparently never checks, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's, Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook, says:

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 1 percent warmer this winter compared with last winter and 1 percent milder than the 30-year average (1971-2000).

Yes, that's right, Leeb believes the former head of NOAA, an anti-scientific denier, but doesn't actually bother checking NOAA's near-term forecast.  And people pay money for his investment advice!

Once again, this bodes well for Brazil, a country which is a net energy exporter. It will impact other developing countries which will be consuming commodities hand over fist. And it will affect the U..S., where year-over-year energy prices show a positive gain despite the recent correction. By the start of next year, energy prices could easily be up 100% y-o-y. In the past, such a high rate of change has always signaled trouble for the stock market and the economy. If it happens this time, in the context of high unemployment, the impact could be worse.

Clearly, you should own energy stocks such as Schlumberger (SLB), the leading oil service company, Transocean (RIG), the leading deepwater driller, and others in our portfolio. The entire energy patch could see extraordinary gains in the years ahead – the result of a long-term trend that could force Al Gore to return his Nobel Prize.

Okay, Leeb is obviously your mainstream rightwinger — the Gore reference by itself makes for an almost ironclad diagnosis of anti-science syndrome (ASS).

I don't generally give out investment advice, but in this case I will make a slight exception.  If you believe in disinformation and not science, if you think we are headed into a long-term cooling trend, then Dr. Stephen Leeb is obviously the guy to place all your money with.

Study: 13 gigatonnes of annual CO2 cuts by 2020 — 3/4 of what is needed for 450 ppm path globally — can be met at net savings of $14 billion

Posted: 06 Oct 2009 12:21 PM PDT

UNpaper_figure1This joint release is from the Center for American Progress and United Nations Foundation.   Download the full report here (pdf).

New York, NY— The United Nations Foundation and the Center for American Progress presented today an analysis of "core elements" needed to combat climate change. In a press conference call, U.N. Foundation President Timothy E. Wirth and Center for American Progress President John D. Podesta also spoke about the ongoing U.N.-led negotiations toward a new international climate agreement.

"This report once again demonstrates that attending to climate change is both the right thing to do and the smart thing to do. Concerted and cooperative international action to get us on a pathway to a global 20 percent renewable electricity standard and halving deforestation by 2020 is the most cost-effective way to achieve our midterm emissions reductions goals. Just as important, improvements in energy efficiency across the board will pay for it all and generate new revenue to help the world's poorest countries adapt to the impacts of climate change they are already experiencing." said Center for American Progress President John Podesta.

Achievable gains in energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, and sustainable land use worldwide could achieve up to 75 percent of needed global emissions reductions in 2020 at a net savings of $14 billion, according to analysis done for the United Nations Foundation by Project Catalyst:

  • Increasing the rate of global energy efficiency improvement to 2.0 percent by 2015 (from current rate of 1.25 percent) would reduce emissions by 12 percent below business as usual in 2020, or 5.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, or GtCO2e, and would yield a net savings in 2020 of $98 billion.
  • Deriving 20 percent of the world's electricity from renewable sources by 2020 would reduce emissions in 2020 by 10 percent below business as usual, or 1.3 GtCO2e, at a net cost in 2020 of $34 billion.
  • Reducing the annual rate of tropical deforestation 50 percent by 2020 and increasing the amount of land under sustainable management though habitat restoration and sustainable forestry, agriculture, and livestock practices would reduce emissions in 2020 by over 50 percent from business as usual, or 6.5 GtCO2e, at a net cost in 2020 of $51 billion.

These actions, along with immediate investments of $1-2 billion to implement National Adaptation Programs of Action for the least developed and most vulnerable countries, would make a sizeable and immediate contribution to solving the climate problem and provide a valuable foundation for a new agreement in Copenhagen.

"A new international agreement is urgently needed to address climate change," said U.N. Foundation President Timothy Wirth. "It must include emission reduction targets by developed countries, nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing countries, financial assistance to developing countries, and technology cooperation.

"Core elements of a new agreement include areas where all countries, both developed and developing, can take immediate action to reduce emissions—action that also supports sustainable development, economic growth, energy security, and public health."