Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Climate Progress


Climate Progress

Climate Progress


Global Boiling: Filibustering Our Farmers' Future

Posted: 18 Aug 2009 09:17 AM PDT

As we've seen, the USDA has found economic benefits of climate bill for farmers 'easily trump' the costs. And that's no surprise since unrestricted GHG emissions will be catastrophic to U..S. farmers (see Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year — and that isn't the worst case, it's business as usual!).  In this Wonk Room post, however, Brad Johnson explains that many leading Senators from farm states still don't get it.

U.S. Senators are attacking the Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act as threatening farmers even though America is suffering from the ravages of a climate out of control — heat waves, floods, storms, droughts, and seasonal shifts. Scientific studies show global warming has already hurt American agriculture, and that the damages will grow catastrophic if action is not taken. In a new video, the Center for American Progress Action Fund argues that passage of a strong climate bill is imperative, and senators should stop filibustering our farmers' future. Watch it:

The rising tide of climate change — the catastrophic droughts in Texas and California, the heat waves in Louisiana and Nebraska, the storms across the High Plains and the Midwest, the floods in North Dakota and Minnesota — require action. Yet many senators are arguing that a limit on carbon pollution would be too costly for farmers:

Saxby Chambliss (R-GA): "No farmers will escape the effect of this bill." [Senate agriculture hearing, 7/22/09]

Jim Inhofe (R-OK): "I had the opportunity of going and talking to the national farm co-ops the other day and addressed to them if we were to pass the cap-and-trade system what that would do to my folks in Oklahoma and all of America . . . It would be disastrous for our farmers in America." [Senate floor, 7/15/09]

Mike Johanns (R-NE): "The Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill would have a significant if not severe impact on agriculture. . . . Different studies come up with varied numbers but they all paint the same picture: agriculture loses." [Senate floor, 7/20/09]

Ben Nelson (D-NE): "I'm concerned that if this is going to be the approach that is taken, that it be the most benign approach to balancing the economy and the environment. It's not just agriculture, it's people turning on their lights and businesses as well." [Senate agriculture hearing, 7/22/09]

John Thune (R-SD): "They're worried about the EPA regulating greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act and what that would mean for the future of the production of agriculture." [Senate agriculture hearing, 7/22/09]

The effort to filibuster clean energy legislation means that a minority of senators can block the effort to preserve the livelihood of farmers in America. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) have committed to cloture — standing against the filibuster. The rest of the senators need to join them.

Climate and nuclear energy humor

Posted: 18 Aug 2009 05:02 AM PDT

today's cartoon

By Alex Hallatt From the Cartoonist Group.

today's cartoon

By Clay Bennett From the Cartoonist Group.

So many amplifying methane feedbacks, so little time to stop them all

Posted: 17 Aug 2009 04:32 PM PDT

The UK's National Oceanography Centre in Southampton reports:

The warming of an Arctic current over the last 30 years has triggered the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from methane hydrate stored in the sediment beneath the seabed.

German and British scientists "have found that more than 250 plumes of bubbles of methane gas are rising from the seabed of the West Spitsbergen continental margin in the Arctic, in a depth range of 150 to 400 metres" [See figure on right].

Methane released from gas hydrate in submarine sediments has been identified in the past as an agent of climate change. The likelihood of methane being released in this way has been widely predicted.

A lead researcher said, "Our survey was designed to work out how much methane might be released by future ocean warming; we did not expect to discover such strong evidence that this process has already started."

This is the first time that such behaviour in response to climate change has been observed in the modern period..

While most of the methane currently released from the seabed is dissolved in the seawater before it reaches the atmosphere, methane seeps are episodic and unpredictable and periods of more vigorous outflow of methane into the atmosphere are possible. Furthermore, methane dissolved in the seawater contributes to ocean acididfication.

Geophysics Professor Graham Westbrook warns: "If this process becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of megatonnes of methane per year – equivalent to 5-10% of the total amount released globally by natural sources, could be released into the ocean."

For more on this, see the original GRL study here (subs. req'd).

The rest of this post, which reviews some recent findings on the not-so-perma-frost, is a guest blog by Ken Levenson, who blogs at checklisttowardzerocarbon.

The vast amount of carbon stored in the arctic and boreal regions of the world is more than double that previously estimated…

Reported in July of this year, by Science Daily – it's a staggering amount:

"We now estimate the deposits contain over 1.5 trillion tons of frozen carbon, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere", said Dr. Charles Tarnocai, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, and lead author.

So the fact that the permafrost is now permamelt becomes a concern truly second to none. More worrying still is that the melting is not the product of a single positive (or amplifying) feedback but, at a minimum, a tag team of three feedbacks each reinforcing each other while attacking from different angles: Land, Sea and Air. There is a comprehensive and devastating attack underway on the permafrost that would make General William Tecumseh Sherman proud.

From the Land:

A new article by Tracey Logan in New Scientist reports:

The fire that raged north of Alaska's Brooks mountain range in 2007 left a 1000-square-kilometre scorched patch of earth – an area larger than the sum of all known fires on Alaska's North Slope since 1950.

Now scientists studying the ecological impact of the fire report that the blaze dumped 1.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – about the amount that Barbados puts out in a year. What's more, at next week's meeting of the Ecological Society of America in Albuquerque, New Mexico, two teams will warn that as climate change takes hold tundra fires across the Arctic will become more frequent.

The concern is two-fold:
1. It transforms the tundra, traditionally a carbon sink, into an carbon emitter.
2. More importantly it radically increases the ground's solar absorption.

Pristine tundra takes up about 30 to 70 grams of carbon per square metre during the summer months, whereas the severely burned site lost about 40 to 120 grams per square metre. The team also found that the most severely burned terrain absorbed 71 per cent more solar radiation than normal…

The really big problem: The burnt tundra — a newly minted solar heat collector — is sitting on the permafrost.

"Along with the melting ice in the permafrost, you're also exposing more old carbon that was stored in that freezer [as organic material] and is being allowed to decompose and reintroduce itself to the atmosphere."

Helping drive the Tundra fires is the air assault.

From the Air:

The average surface air temperature warming in the arctic has been many times greater than Earth's average warming. The warming is concentrated where it can likely do the most damage. (See posts NASA: Another brutally hot year for the Siberian Tundra and NOAA's arctic report card shows stronger effects of warming in Greenland and permafrost.)

The NOAA 2008 report card notes a shockingly number:

Autumn temperatures are at a record 5ยบ C above normal, due to the major loss of sea ice in recent years which allows more solar heating of the ocean. Winter and springtime temperatures remain relatively warm over the entire Arctic, in contrast to the 20th century and consistent with an emerging global warming influence..

As the excerpt states the feedbacks are reinforcing each other. On to the the sea attack.

From the Sea:

Permafrost threatened by rapid melt of Arctic sea ice – reported the American Geophysical Union in 2008.

The team finds that, during episodes of rapid sea-ice loss, the rate of Arctic land warming is 3.5 times greater than the average 21st century warming rates predicted in global climate models. While this warming is largest over the ocean, the simulations suggest that it can penetrate as far as 1500 kilometers (about 900 miles) inland. The simulations also indicate that the warming acceleration during such events is especially pronounced in autumn. The decade during which a rapid sea-ice loss event occurs could see autumn temperatures warm by as much as 5 degrees C (9 degrees F) along the Arctic coasts of Russia, Alaska, and Canada.

What's to worry about? It's not like we've been losing all that much sea ice – NOT. See also North Pole poised to be largely ice-free by 2020: "It's like the Arctic is covered with an egg shell and the egg shell is now just cracking completely".

The rapidly melting Arctic permafrost is now our biggest existential threat – as it was the Soviet ICBMs raining down from the Arctic circle we so feared growing up. And while we and the Soviets were restrained by self-interest, the hard-charging feedbacks have no such restraints. We must restrain the feedbacks. And as Joe says, the time to start is yesterday.

Related Posts:

Truthiness or consequences: Bill McKibben on The Colbert Report tonight (Monday)

Posted: 17 Aug 2009 02:04 PM PDT

From Facebook:

Tonight, at 11:30pm on Comedy Central, Bill is appearing on the The Colbert Report..

For those of you who haven't seen it, The Colbert Report is a satirical (and hilarious!) late-night TV show that criticizes politics, media, and just about everything else. Its fictional anchorman, Steven Colbert, is a right-wing bully who has often declared his skepticism of global warming.

Going on The Colbert report is very exciting, and it gives us a chance to reach a very wide audience with the 350 message. It's also a bit of a gamble—Colbert himself is sharp as a tack, and his writers come up with questions designed to embarrass and flummox his guests. Which is probably why Bill didn't want to publicize tonight's show. :)

But the secret is out—so make some popcorn, tell your friends, and prepare to watch Bill and Stephen duke it out Monday at 11:30! And it repeats on Tuesday at 8:30 if you miss it!

For more on 350 ppm, click here!

Energy and Global Warming News for August 17th: China's top climate policy advisers push for 2030 emissions peak; Australia's Bureau of Meteorology: "It's reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming."

Posted: 17 Aug 2009 01:04 PM PDT

China study urges greenhouse gas caps, peak in 2030

China should set firm targets to limit greenhouse gas emissions so they peak around 2030, a study by some of the nation's top climate change policy advisers has proposed ahead of contentious talks on a new global warming pact.

The call for "quantified targets" to cap greenhouse gas pollution marks a high-level public departure from China's reluctance to spell out a proposed peak and date for it.

"By 2008 China had become the world's biggest national emitter of greenhouse gases and faces unprecedented challenges," says the preface of the 900-page report, setting aside China's reluctance to say it has passed the United States as the top emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from burning coal, gas and oil.

See also China climate change report sets out options for key proposals of that study, "2050 China Energy and C02 Emissions Report"  — China signals long-term plans to curb GHGs, Cabinet report finds "The large amount of greenhouse gases emitted through human activities is the main reason for global warming leading to extreme weather events" and China softens climate rhetoric, commits to emissions peak (again), shows flexibility on Western reductions.

Study links drought with rising emissions

Drought experts have for the first time proven a link between rising levels of greenhouse gases and a decline in rainfall..

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed that the drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change.

Scientists working on the $7 million South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative said the rain had dropped away because the subtropical ridge – a band of high pressure systems that sits over the country's south – had strengthened over the past 13 years….

"It's reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming," said the bureau's Bertrand Timbal.

(see "Australia today offers horrific glimpse of U.S. Southwest, much of planet, post-2040" and "Global Boiling: Australia's hellish black Saturday of extreme fire")

GM to assemble Volt battery packs in Michigan

General Motors Co. chief Fritz Henderson says a new $43 million plant in Michigan will assemble battery packs for the company's upcoming rechargeable electric car, as the automaker continues relying on suppliers for key elements of the batteries.

GM's president and chief executive held a news conference Thursday morning at the plant site in Brownstown Township, 20 miles southwest of Detroit. Production will start in the fourth quarter of 2010, employing about 100 people, GM said.

Wind of change blows across the Great Lakes

The New York Power Authority (NYPA), America's largest state-owned power organisation, is appealing to the private sector, including Britain's National Grid, to help it to generate electricity from one of its most prized assets — by turning a corner of the Great Lakes into a giant wind farm.

With an ageing power infrastructure, energy imports running at $700b illion (£423 billion) a year and with projected electricity demand in the United States expected to double by 2030 and to triple by 2050, utility companies have little choice but to invest in new sustainable technologies.

The NYPA hopes that its Great Lakes Offshore Wind project, harnessing the winds blowing on the New York State waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario, will excite private sector interest worldwide.

Climate Models Confirm More Moisture In Atmosphere Attributed To Humans

When it comes to using climate models to assess the causes of the increased amount of moisture in the atmosphere, it doesn't much matter if one model is better than the other.

They all come to the same conclusion: Humans are warming the planet, and this warming is increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

Snowfalls down by 40 per cent over 50 years

Australian skiers may have to look overseas in search of suitable snowfalls, thanks to global warming.

The average snow cover at Australia's highest altitude snow course, Spencer's Creek in the Snowy Mountains, has declined by 30 per cent to 40 per cent in the last 50 years, a conference in Brisbane will be told today.

The cost of man-made snow is also likely to increase as more water and electricity are required.

Unlike skiers, specialised plants that have learnt to survive in the Australian highlands don't have the option of seeking out higher ground and may face extinction, Associate Professor Catherine Pickering of Griffith University said.

Best wines will come from Scotland if climate change is not stopped, French chefs say

A group of chefs, sommeliers and chateaux has issued a call to action, urging the country to secure ambitious targets in the months ahead to limit global warming.

President Nicolas Sarkozy was posed a stark choice: save French wine by clinching a deal at the international climate conference in Copenhagen in December, or see generations of viticulture slowly die out as vineyards cross the Channel and head north.

Climate, Growth and Floods in Mumbai

Mumbai, India's commercial capital, has grown quickly in recent decades — at the expense of its estuaries, environmentalist advocates say. And some analysts warn that climate change has made the situation all the more precarious.

"Most of the development that you see today has been built upon a landscape of overflows," said Dilip Da Cunha, an architect who teaches at the University of Pennsylvania, who helped to create an exhibition about the city's environs (which is currently showing in Mumbai).

"Even the city's main railway line and national highway have been built upon what was originally a series of wetlands that served as catchment and drainage areas for the annual monsoon rains," he added.

India opposes linking trade with emission caps

Thwarting yet another attempt by the developed world to force countries to accept legally binding emission caps, India has expressed its objections to linking trade with climate change.

At the Bonn climate change negotiations, which concluded on Friday, India proposed introducing a clause to bar trade barriers targeting goods and services of nations that refuse to accept legally binding emission caps.

Australian renewable laws set to pass parliament

Australian laws to require 20 percent of energy to come from renewable sources by 2020 are set to pass through parliament by late Thursday after government talks with opposition lawmakers on the bill on Monday.

The clean energy industry expects the laws will unlock $22 billion of investment in solar, wind and geothermal energy, after the government backed down on linking compensation for industry to its emissions trading laws, which were rejected on Aug. 13.

Biofuel production 'is harming the poor'

The production of biofuels is fuelling poverty, human rights abuses and damage to the environment, Christian Aid warned today.

The charity said huge subsidies and targets in developed countries for boosting the production of fuels from plants such as maize and oil palm are exacerbating environmental and social problems in poor nations.

And rather than being a "silver bullet" to tackle climate change, the carbon emissions of some of the fuels are higher than fossil fuels because of deforestation driven by the need for land for them to grow.