Saturday, September 12, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Fw: Climate Progress
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- Tom Friedman, Our One-Party Democracy, and the clean energy jobs message
- Scientists find "net present value of climate change impacts" of $1240 TRILLION on current emissions path, making mitigation to under 450 ppm a must
- Duke's Jim Rogers: "Green jobs put people to work, achieve long-term cost savings and ease demand on limited resources…. Performing every job in a more sustainable manner, however, must begin with a mandate from leaders…."
- Waste Not, Watt Not: Energy efficiency cuts pollution while lowering energy bills — that's why it's a core strategy of the climate and clean energy bill
- Energy and Global Warming News for September 8: China is the world leader in solar hot water heating; Japan climate pledge conditional on China, India
| Tom Friedman, Our One-Party Democracy, and the clean energy jobs message Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:48 AM PDT Any first-time visitors from Tom Friedman's column can go here for "An Introduction to Climate Progress."
This is from Friedman's column, "Our One-Party Democracy," which he previewed on Meet the Press Sunday. The jobs argument is a core message for winning the public debate about the clean air, clean water, clean energy jobs bill. Friedman is a centrist who advances the argument because he knows it is true, because he understands climate science is real, and because he is a hard-core capitalist who sees the tough dynamic the U.S. is facing in the global economy. If you're not first, you're probably last. The importance of the clean energy jobs message is evidenced by the fact that the corporate polluters and their right-wing allies in the media will do anything to kill it, from publishing phony studies attacking clean energy jobs to pushing their vile assault on Van Jones, who has been a leading articulator of the message (see "Fox News blurts out its agenda: "Now that Jones has resigned, we need to follow through…. First, stop cap-and-trade, which could send these groups trillions," and then put "the whole corrupt 'green jobs' concept outside the bounds of the political mainstream"). How else do we know the clean energy jobs message is crucial? Obama also uses it at every opportunity, including his recent Labor Day speech. In spite of the media's strong desire to push the message that Obama has lost interest in the climate and clean energy bill, once again he said:
And here's yet another way to frame the job message — from Obama again (4/22):
And Obama again (3/19):
Another way to frame the message that polls well is :
The international competitiveness argument works — but as it turns out, it works best if it is linked directly to the loss of American jobs. This paragraph tests very well in polling of swing voters:
Of course, the jobs message isn't the only one to use to push the clean air, clean water, clean energy jobs bill. I'll discuss those other core messages in future posts. Let me end this post by excerpting the Friedman column:
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| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 06:39 PM PDT [The authors of this study framed their results incorrectly, I think, causing many in the media to miscover or ignore the story.]
And as the IIED reported, the study Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates concludes costs will be even more when the full range of climate impacts on human activities is considered. The study finds that the mean "Net present value of climate change impacts" in the A2 scenario is $1240 TRILLION with no adaptation, but "only" $890 trillion with adaptation.
Don't worry folks, it's only a "small probability" — but that "fat tail" by itself is enough to render all traditional economic analyses useless (see Harvard economist: Climate cost-benefit analyses are "unusually misleading," warns colleagues "we may be deluding ourselves and others"). Let's put aside the fact we are on pace to exceed the A2 scenario (which is "only" about 850 ppm atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in 2100): See U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: "Recent observations confirm … the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised" — 1000 ppm. For this country, the A2 scenario means 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year. But here's the key point the media and the authors failed to convey. In the "aggressive abatement" case (450 ppm), the mean "Net present value [NPV] of climate change impacts" is only $410 trillion — or $275 trillion with adaptation. So stabilizing at 450 ppm reduces NPV impacts by $615 to $830 trillion. But the abatement NPV cost is only $110 trillion — a 6-to-1 savings or better. Bizarrely, the authors never point this out directly. They are adaptation experts, so rather than focusing on the immense economic benefits of preventing catastrophic global warming in the first place, they offer up this secondary conclusion as their primary finding:
Uhhh, not quite. What threatens to weaken the outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations is that the overwhelming majority of politicians, opinion makers, and journalists in this country (and around the world, I think) don't get that 1) the cost of inaction is catastrophically high [and potentially beyond calculation] and 2) the cost of action is far, far lower [see also "Intro to climate economics: Why even strong climate action has such a low total cost -- one tenth of a penny on the dollar"]. Oh well. If you're interested in why the IPCC underestimated adaptation costs, the study focuses on several areas:
No surprise, really, given that the IPCC lowballs amplifying feedbacks and climate impacts, too. Anyway, if you're interested in the important stuff — the enormous benefit of stabilizing at 450 ppm — just jump to Chapter 8, page 103, here. |
| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 05:41 PM PDT No doubt Glenn Beck will call now call Jim Rogers a socialist — and some readers may call him schizophrenic or worse. But the coal-plant-building, climate-bill-endorsing, coal-front-group-quitting CEO of Duke Energy agrees with me that in the future the only jobs left will be green:
Very coy, his ambiguous use of the phrase "must begin with a mandate from leaders." Does he mean corporate CEOs — or Washington DC political leaders? Either way, it's one thing for Climate Progress to say all future jobs will be green, and quite another for Rogers to do so as a long letter to the editor of the Indianapolis Star, a major swing state. He continues:
Pretty straightforward stuff. Pretty scary, then, that FoxNews wants to put "the whole corrupt 'green jobs' concept outside the bounds of the political mainstream." |
| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 02:27 PM PDT The House climate and clean energy bill has made energy efficiency a centerpiece (see "The triumph of energy efficiency: Waxman-Markey could save $3,900 per household and create 650,000 jobs by 2030"). It would generate some $500 billion through 2025 in efficiency investments alone (see "The only way to win the clean energy race is to pass the clean energy bill"). This new CAP analysis, which includes a state-by-state data on energy savings, cost savings, job creation, and pollution reductions from efficiency investments under the American Clean Energy and Security Act (.xls), by Daniel J. Weiss, Erica Goad, and Jonathan Aronchick was first published here. Energy efficiency is the "low-hanging fruit" of energy policy, and is the quickest, easiest, and most cost-effective way of driving new investment, creating jobs, saving consumers money, and cutting pollution. Energy efficiency alone could cheaply—and often profitably—provide two-thirds the necessary greenhouse gas reductions to reduce carbon emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050—a level based on the science-driven conclusion that the risks of dangerous climate impacts rise sharply as planetary warming exceeds 2°C from preindustrial levels. The American Clean Energy and Security Act, H.R. 2454—which passed the House and is now pending in the Senate—recognizes and invests in the economic benefits of energy efficiency. The bill would provide up to $65 billion in allowances from 2012 to 2020 for state and local government energy efficiency programs (see chart). These funds are in addition to other investments in energy efficiency from utilities and the federal government. The state and local programs in ACES would create up to 137,000 jobs in 2015 from energy efficiency investments that year [1]. It would save consumers up to $63 billion on their electricity bills from 2012-2020, while reducing enough greenhouse gas pollution during this period to equal taking 26.5 million cars off the road. These projections are based on our analysis that provides estimates of efficiency investments, job creation, electricity savings, and greenhouse gas pollution reductions under state and local government energy efficiency programs funded by ACES. This includes the cumulative benefits from these efficiency investments. Once a building is made more efficient, the electricity savings and pollution reductions accrue every year compared to business as usual. So the lower energy costs that occur due to investments in 2012 are also a benefit in 2013, 2014, and so on. Any energy savings from efficiency measures undertaken in 2013 are in addition to the savings in 2012. There are many techniques to increase energy efficiency. State and local programs can fund investments that include insulating and weather-stripping homes, constructing "green" rooftops, replacing leaky windows, installing efficient heating and cooling systems, and replacing inefficient appliances with those that have high Energy Star ratings. Retrofitting existing buildings can make the biggest and most meaningful dent in carbon emissions, and it can lay the foundation for sustained economic growth. The Center for American Progress and Energy Future Coalition report "Rebuilding America" describes the federal policies necessary to create a nationwide market for building efficiency retrofits. Accomplishing these and other energy efficiency improvements would create jobs and save consumers money, contributing to the nation's economic recovery. Along with much-needed jobs, economy-wide energy-saving opportunities are worth more than $130 billion annually to the U.S. economy. This is why consultancy McKinsey & Co. concluded that energy efficiency represents a "vast, low-cost energy resource for the U.S. economy, but only if the nation can craft a comprehensive and innovative approach to unlock it." The American Clean Energy and Security Act, or ACES, contains such "comprehensive and innovative" provisions that capitalize on the benefits of energy efficiency investments. The Environmental Protection Agency, for example, determined recently that the bill would lead to a 7-percent decline in the average household electric bills by 2020 due to its energy efficiency measures. This would save the average household $84 annually in lower bills. What's more, "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy" by the University of Massachusetts and Center for American Progress, found that investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and ACES would create 1..7 million net new jobs. These jobs would include positions for electricians, heating/air conditioning installers, carpenters, construction equipment operators, roofers, insulation workers, building inspectors, civil engineers, iron and steel workers, millwrights, and industrial production managers. An essential program in the American Clean Energy and Security Act would give substantial financial support to state and local governments to undertake energy efficiency efforts. The bill (Title I, Subtitle D) would create the State Energy and Environment Development program, or SEED, to provide up to $8 billion annually to states in the form of pollution allowances that they could sell to emitters on the open market. These funds would then be invested in different efficiency and renewable energy technology efforts depending on the needs of each state and its local governments to use for initiatives such as retrofitting public and private buildings, community energy education, schools programs, and programs that incentivize efficiency. The funds from SEED allowances would dramatically expand state and local efficiency programs. This would create jobs, save consumers money, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This has the potential to create up to 137,000 jobs in 2015 if states invest all of their discretionary allowances into efficiency programs.. California could add up to 8,600 jobs undertaking efficiency projects. Ohio would add up to 5,300 new jobs, while 6,300 are possible in Pennsylvania.. All of this job creation would occur from these energy efficiency investments alone. As noted in "The Economic Benefits" study, they represent only a fraction of the clean-energy investments and new jobs that would occur under other energy efficiency, renewable energy, and global warming pollution reduction provisions in ACES. The legislation has a number of other provisions that would create jobs, lower electric bills for consumers, and cut pollution. These include:
These and other measures in H.R. 2454 would save energy, cut costs, and reduce pollution beyond this analysis of state and local governments spending allowance value on energy efficiency programs. Energy efficiency benefits the U.S. economy. It reduces consumer energy bills, makes America more energy independent, and cuts global warming pollution. Efficiency also creates jobs. The technology necessary to make our lives more energy efficient and our economy more secure is ready and easily accessible. Under the American Clean Energy and Security Act, the United States can move toward both a sustainable and a thriving economy. Efficiency standards and the subsequent job creation, consumer savings, and pollution reductions are just some of the many reasons why the Senate should pass similar legislation this fall. Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and the Director of Climate Strategy at American Progress. Erica Goad is a former intern and Jonathan Aronchick a current intern with the Energy team at American Progress. Endnotes[1] The number of jobs created each year due to state spending under these efficiency programs varies depending on the total dollar amount invested in each program. The peak investment is $8.2 billion of allowances in 2015, which is used for calculating the job creation that year. The average total allowance value is $7.2 billion annually from 2012-2020, which would create an average of 120,000 jobs annually. Unlike energy and greenhouse gas reductions, the job totals are not cumulative. Every year of spending creates a number of jobs for that year alone. MethodologyThe data used in this analysis does not exist in one place. The data on allowance allocation estimates for state and local efficiency programs was obtained from the World Resource Institute and Georgetown Climate Center based on their analysis of allowances to states. Their analysis is "Analysis of Allowances to States Under H.R. 2454" by John Larsen, Kate Zyla, and Gabriel Pacyniak. This report summarizes the Allowance Distribution to States and Energy Consumers under H.R. 2454. From 2012 to 2020, ACES would provide 1.2 billion allowances for "energy efficiency – home heating oils through states" and "energy efficiency – through states (SEED + EE building codes + building retrofit)." There are 2 billion allowances provided during this same period for the "energy efficiency OR renewable energy (or other) – through states" program, which states have discretion to spend on a combination of renewables and efficiency. For the purposes of this analysis, the assumption is that 100 percent of the allowances value is used for state and local energy efficiency programs. Thus, the jobs, energy and consumer savings, and greenhouse gas pollution reductions are upper bounds. The allowance value calculations assumes Congressional Budget Office allowance price of $16 to $26 per ton from 2012-2020. The benefits from an investment in efficiency continue to accrue annually in the years following the investment. For instance, the nationwide investment in state efficiency programs of $6.4 billion in 2012 would yield a reduction in electricity use of nearly 13,000 MWh. The efficiency measures that produce this result will remain in place in 2013, so there will be another 13,000 MWh electricity savings. These savings are in addition to the new savings from the additional efficiency measures funded by the $6.7 billion in 2013. So the electricity savings and greenhouse gas pollution reductions are cumulative, and the figures in this analysis reflect this phenomenon. The Department of Energy developed an "estimated expected benefits" calculator that local governments can use as a resource when submitting their Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant proposals. Since applicants for EECBG formula grants for efficiency are required to estimate the numbers of jobs created, the energy saved, and the greenhouse gas emissions reduced for each activity, the calculator was developed to assist with these estimates. Thus, the calculator can be used to estimate the direct benefits of state investments in energy efficiency. The estimated value of the reduced electricity use was derived using each state's 2007 average electricity rate from the Department of Energy. Since electricity prices increased in 2008, the estimated savings from lower electricity use are fairly conservative. The greenhouse gas reductions were derived using the Environmental Protection Agency's 2005 estimate of state CO2 emissions per kilowatt hour multiplied by the energy savings from DOE's benefits calculator. "The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy" analysis by the Political Economy Research Institute and Center for American Progress estimates that the direct, indirect, and induced effect for $1 million in spending is 16.7 jobs. This figure was used for the job creation estimates in this report. Thanks to Benjamin Goldstein, John Larsen, and Kate Zyla. Special Thanks to Will Thomas. Related Posts:
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| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 12:11 PM PDT "Ninety-nine percent of households in Rizhao, China, use solar water heaters like these."
China, green? In the case of solar water heating, yes
Oh and now it turns out that Japan's pledge — to slash CO2 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 — is conditional. Not So Fast: Japan Climate Pledge Conditional on China, India
Maldives to introduce green tax on tourists
The U.S. Climate Change Bill: International Trade Implications & China
EU proposes U.N. war chest for climate funds
Global Business Leaders, Policy Makers, and NGOs Convene to Catalyze Partnerships
France Mulls CO2 Taxes on Citizens
Tokyo Electric to use carbon market
Renewable energy plan creates rift
Climate change: melting ice will trigger wave of natural disasters
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Fw: Climate Progress
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- Fox News blurts out its agenda: "Now that Jones has resigned, we need to follow through…. First, stop cap-and-trade, which could send these groups trillions," and then put "the whole corrupt 'green jobs' concept outside the bounds of the political mainstream."
- In Labor Day speech, Obama says we must build "an America where energy reform creates green jobs that can never be outsourced and that finally frees America from the grip of foreign oil" — attacks the "status quo" special interests who want to "do nothing."
- Duke Energy wants big rate increases for its new NC coal plant. Here's what Durham ratepayers should do.
| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 08:35 AM PDT
Now Phil Kerpen, policy director for Americans for Prosperity, has laid out the right-wing strategy for how "the Van Jones affair could be an important turning point in the Obama administration," in a piece on FOXNews.com. AFP is "pro-tobacco industry" group that "worked around the U.S. in recent years to defeat" smokefree workplace laws (as SourceWatch notes) — and is now fighting for the big corporate polluters to block climate and clean energy action. Brad Johnson at WonkRoom has documented how Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is a front group for billionaire polluters, pushing the most inane pro-pollution ads you'll ever see (here). But what Fox News and AFP would like to achieve is no joke:
Conservatives hate the notion of green clean energy jobs because their entire anti-science, anti-climate, anti-environment message is built around the (false) notion of a trade-off between reducing pollution and jobs (see "Mything in action: Why conservatives hate green clean energy jobs"). If you don't care about the health and well-being of future generations, you certainly don't care if they have good jobs (or any jobs, for that matter).
Progressives are going to have to redouble our efforts if we're to have any chance whatsoever of creating 1.7 million clean energy jobs while averting catastrophic global warming. Here is an excerpt of the FoxNews/AFP opinion piece strategy document, "How Van Jones Happened and What We Need to Do Next," which seems like a parody, but, sadly, isn't:
Seriously. His real name was "Anthony." String him up, already!
The only central economic planning control we have in this country is the massive subsidies and regulatory favoritism for polluters.
No, this is NOT an Onion parody. The cap-and-trade bill is a watermelon, a watermelon, I tell you, not a mango, for Chrissakes!
I will concede that many people call me hyper, but I like to think of the Center's energy and climate "agenda" as hyper-scientific. Here is the chart — the 21st century version of Nixon's enemies list. I just don't understand why I didn't make it, even if CAP did. I guess I'm not hyper enough.
Even though I have mocked this too-mockable piece of mockery, what happened to Van Jones makes clear that we have to take these folks seriously, even if one of the many necessary response strategies is to mock them for their paranoid fantasies and anti-scientific beliefs. I will discuss strategic responses later, but for now, let's remember what we are fighting for. President Obama has cut through conservative myths better than anyone: Related Posts: |
| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 07:33 AM PDT President Obama delivered a rip roaring speech yesterday in Cincinnati (text and videos here). It's how he should have been messaging all along. Even though it focused on health care and the economy, Obama talked about clean energy, as always does:
In the clip above, he launches into a scathing attack on the status quo special interests who are trying to block action on health care reform, and lays out the catastrophe that awaits this country if we do nothing. This is precisely what he needs to do on climate change, even though (some of) his advisers are foolishly suggesting otherwise. Obama said bluntly:
Memo to team Obama: He could use the exact same words to talk about the climate and clean energy bill in the fall. Obama continues:
Scary stuff, immediately turned into his positive message. I just don't see why such fact-based messaging — sometimes called fear-based messaging by people on our side who don't understand messaging and by people on the do-nothing side trying to stop us from using our best messaging strategies — is fine for health care reform but not energy reform. The good news on health care is that Obama started framing health reform as delivering health security, as I and others had urged (see "Can Obama deliver health and energy security with a half (assed) message?"):
Nice repetition. Security and stability. Duh. There's a reason one of the most successful progressive programs of all time is called "Social Security." I only hope it isn't too late for this message to take hold. On the climate and clean energy bill, we've been pushing clean energy jobs and energy security all along, a message that has clearly broken through. Now Obama just needs to deliver a rip roaring speech like this on climate in the fall — and use the whole damn message:
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| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 05:35 AM PDT To all readers in North Carolina — Duke University students, I'm talking to you — please spread the word from the North Carolina Conservation Network on the Duke Energy Rate Hike Hearing at the Durham City Hall this Thursday evening:
Yeah, Duke Energy has argued "We Can 'Decarbonize' Without Painful Electricity Price Hikes," it supports the climate bill, and it just quit the scandal-ridden coal front group over the issue. But they are still a big coal utility, and building new expensive, dirty plants when energy efficiency would be much cheaper and infinitely cleaner. Why should NC ratepayers suffer for Duke's bad decisions? The NCCN is "a statewide network of over 100 environmental, community and environmental justice organizations focused on protecting North Carolina's environment and public health." Click here for details on attending the rate hearing. You're perhaps wondering about how Duke can get a rate increase for rising coal costs when the price has collapse, as the figure from the Energy Information Administration below shows:
Well, let's just say public utility commissions are not notoriously fast on these matters, so this would look to be covering Duke's costs retroactively. But given the under-utilization of natural gas plants in this region of the country — the average utilization of natural‐gas‐fired capacity by electric generators was about 11% to 13% in 2008 (see "Game changer, Part 2: Unconventional gas makes the 2020 Waxman-Markey target so damn easy and cheap to meet) — efficiency and natural gas and biomass should be able to more than cover the power delivered from any new coal plants at a far lower price. It'd probably be cheaper to simply stop building the new friggin' coal plant. Demonstrating that would be a good project for Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment and their dynamic dean (see "The Bjorn Irrelevancy: Duke dean disses Danish delayer"). |
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Having taken Van Jones down, the job destroyers and climate destroyers of the right wing most certainly smell blood (see 




